Autumn is here and we got a little taste of chill and some heavy rain to kick off the new season. The big question is will this be a sign of things to come for the rest this fall and winter?
If we're going to get out of the current drought we need to catch up during the fall and winter months.
In a normal fall we get around nine inches of rain but lately we have fallen short of that mark. You have to go back to the fall of 2009 and 2010 for soggy times with a couple of tropical systems hitting Texas. That was the last time we weren't in a drought.
We average just under 7 inches of rain from December to February. We've had more dry winters and wet ones lately.
Drought-busting rainy patterns normally come from the weather event called El Nino. This is the warming of the eastern pacific that can occur in the fall and winter months. The warmer waters lead to a more active southern branch of the storm track that increases the frequency of rain events.
It doesn't look like El Nino will show up this year. Most of the models keep us in a neutral phase. Here is the result.
Near average rainfall not only for the rest of this year but also through early next year.
This means we won't get enough rain to get us out of the drought for the next 6 months.
It also looks like we'll have a mild fall and winter with less cloudy and rainy days in the coming months.
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