Weather Facts: El Nino to the rescue?

So far it's been a very dry autumn. Kay Adams of Austin was wondering if El Nino is still coming to our rescue to get us out of the drought completely this winter or will it just get worse going into next year.

The area has not fully recovered from the exceptional drought of 2011. Most areas are abnormally dry or in a moderate drought.

The sporadic nature of the rain events this year hasn't let us get out of drought mode.

In fact, Central Texas has been pretty lucky this year because the rest of state is still enduring significant rainfall deficits.

The drought outlook from NOAA shows areas from Texas to the plains continuing to experience some type of drought through early next year.

A couple of months ago, it looked like El Nino would arrive and help erase the drought. This may not come true.

The warming of the eastern pacific which helps enhance a rainy weather pattern for Texas in the winter, is showing signs of weakening.

Now there is only a 30 percent chance of going into an El Nino pattern. We will more likely slide into a neutral phase. So what does mean for our rain prospects for the next few months.

Earlier it looked like a rainy winter was likely but now the chances of getting over 6 inches of rain this winter are at 20 percent.

Next spring there is a 40 percent chance of a wetter than average march through May. There is still hope to get out of the drought completely. It may take a little longer.

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